Pick by Pick, Brick by Brick: Analyzing Draft Strategies for the Buffalo Bills in 2025

My first reaction… what a bunch of nonsense. But upon closer observation, there was a massive run on DE, DL and CBs early on. Maybe it’s not so far-fetched as I initially thought. So what would each player bring?

Matthew Golden – At 5’10 191 lbs, Matthew Golden is the quintessential modern WR for a modern offense. He simply does everything well. NFL.com compares him to Chris Olave in that he has enough speed and route running to challenge all levels of the field, giving him the versatility to fit into any system. In his Senior Season at Texas, Golden played in 16 games, putting up 58 receptions for 987 yards and 9 TDs. I know the Bills just got James Palmer, but my roster projection only has 3 locks at the WR position and a camp battle, including 5 players that are fighting for a spot. Beane believes in competition in every position group and Golden would likely win one of the top 4 WR position the second he walks in the room.

Malaki Starks – Standing 6’1, 197 lbs, Malaki is a blueprint for a modern safety. He plays at all three levels of the defense, covers man to man, plays in the slot. He tackles well, has a nose for the football and provides amazing versatility that should make DCs salivate. ProFootballNetwork and the 33rd team compares him to former Titans Safety Kevin Byard. He would provide competition and likely an upgrade able to play across the Bills Zone Defense. Wherever the opponent’s number 1 threat is, Starks could cover him.

Kenneth Grant – The stud DT Kenneth Grant would be a massive upgrade at 1 technique. At 6’4, 331 lbs, Grant provides all the size you could need, similar to what you get from Daquan Jones, but provides a pass rushing upside, lateral ability, and a hurry-to-the-ball mentality that Daquan lacks at this point in his career. He would enter and immediately upgrade that position and free up Ed Oliver/Greg Rousseau/Joey Bosa to eat early in the season, rotating in with Daquan Jones, then could avoid the rookie wall by rotating with Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht as they return from their suspensions.

With the 30th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Kenneth Grant – DL Michigan

Round 2 – Pick 56th Overall

First reaction: How much of a drop off was there between Kenneth Grant and other DLinemen such as Tyleik Williams, or Darius Alexander? Would picking a Matthew Golden early and picking Tyleik Williams in the 2nd provide more overall value. This is the danger of hindsight during Mock Drafts, but also the kind of insight that may help guide the Bills on Draft Night. DL talent extends well into the top 80 players or so, while there is not a WR or Safety to be seen. The Bills always bake need into their board, but have proven time and again that when the evaluation isn’t close, they will take talent over need every time. See Dalton Kincaid, A.J. Epenesa, Boogie Basham.

In any case, here we are. The Round of Ohio State

TreVeyon Henderson – Now I know what you’re thinking. This is a defensive draft. The Bills need to improve the defense if they’re going to win a SuperBowl. RB isn’t a premium position. You can replace them more easily in Free Agency, for cheaper.

It’s all true. This is an unlikely pick, but let’s not forget that James Cook was a second-round pick, selected when the Bills were cruising along with Motor Singletary (see my Bills Run Game breakdown). James Cook doesn’t seem eager to take a team-friendly deal, which is the only deal Beane seems to want to offer. So if your choice is to pay James Cook 12 million for 2 years, or pay a 2nd Round draft pick 1.3 million for 4 years to partner with Ray Davis, it begins to become more believable. Another Beane Maxim: Keep your fastball. The Bills running back room in Joe Brady’s scheme provided more of a spark for the offense than we’ve seen since Le’Sean McCoy. Could the Bills trade James Cook away for a third-rounder this year? Never say never.

TreVeyon Henderson was the #1 ranked RB recruit in his recruiting class. As a 5-star recruit, he could essentially choose his school, and he chose well. He benefited greatly in college by splitting carries with Quinshon Judkins, something he would get the opportunity to do with the Bills. At 5’10 202 lbs, TreVeyon ran a 4.43 40, and covered the first 10 yards in a mere 1.52 seconds. With 590 rushes for 3761 yards and 42 TDs, chipping in another 77 catches for 853 receiving yard and 6 receiving TDs, Henderson is versatile, productive, and puts the team first. Winning the national championship doesn’t hurt his stock any either.

TreVeyon could allow the Bills to simply avoid the James Cook headache this year, providing a competent NFL ready complement to Ray Davis and allowing the Bills to keep their motto in motion, everybody eats.

Tyleik Williams – Another Ohio State Product, Tyleik was a wrecking ball in college. He finished his career with the Buckeyes with 136 total tackles, 28 Tackles for Loss, 11.5 Sacks, and 10 passes defended. He came through in big moments, leading a stifling Ohio State defense to a national championship. At 6’3 334, he makes it hard to believe that the is the slimmed down version of Tyleik Williams, tipping the scales at 360 lbs. He ran a 4.68 40, but staggered everyone with his 10 yard split of 1.62. He stops the run, he rushes the passer… he does everything we would hope a NFL could do for us. Speculators (like on NFLDraftBuzz.com) say that his explosiveness makes him uniquely suited to utilize his versatility by lining up at multiple positions, though he would likely call 3-Technique his first position. Comparisons liken him to Dalvin Tomlinson, who many Bills fans were hoping the Bills would sign in Free Agency.

I know this is also an unlikely position for the Bills to draft, especially after getting Kenneth Grant in the 1st, but double dipping at DL would allow the Bills to not have to worry as much about the first 6 weeks of the season, allowing both rookies to gain valuable playing time and experience. The most successful teams keep the pipeline to the trenches open, and the Bills could do a lot worse.

Azareye’h Thomas – If the Bills are looking to address their gaps in the defense, you can’t find a gap much bigger than at CB. At 6’2, 197 lbs, Azareye’h presents an opportunity for the Bills to get a legitimate outside corner to play opposite Christian Benford. Thomas racked up 95 total tackles, including 9 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, and 15 passes defended across only 37 games played. His 40 time left a lot to be desired at 4.58 seconds, but so did Christian Benford’s at 4.53. This is the easiest path a rookie would see to playing time this year, as any flash of upside would likely relegate Dane Jackson to a support role (Update: after the writing of this article, the Bills brought back Tre’Davious White…allowing me to wear my Tre jersey again). He is also one of the last of the top 50 DBs left in the draft.

J.T. Tuimoloau – at 6’4, 265 lbs, J.T. ran a 4.62 40 putting him at the 91st percentile for DEs. He was a consistent producer in college, displaying his raw athleticism and tenacity as he continued to make plays throughout his career. NFLDraft Buzz compares him to Jermaine Johnson and Jaelen Phillips. In 55 games, playing in what appears to be every single game for the Buckeyes, J.T. made 144 combined tackles, including a staggering 45 tackles for loss and 23.5 sacks. He also had two interceptions including one pick-6 and has 10 passes defended. He is a play-making machine and projects extremely well to an even front defense.

I know, we just signed Joey Bosa, we have Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, the Bills are high on Javon Solomon and Ede Ulofoshio, but the Bills atrocious performance against the pass and inability to get to the QB, make it very difficult to pass up on the opportunity to get another stud pass rusher into the building.

With the 56th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Azareye’h Thomas – CB Florida State

Round 2 – Pick 62nd Overall

Lightning! The benefit of picking 62nd overall is that there is a good shot that someone you might have considered before could drop to you 6 spots later and that’s what happens here. While TreVeyon Henderson goes to the Houston Texans, and Tyleik Williams goes to Baltimore, but J.T. Tuimoloau falls to us at pick 62. We’ll make this one short and sweet.

With the 62nd overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select J.T. Tuimoloau.

Round 4 – Pick 109 Overall

One of the most unlikely events to happen in the actual draft, not a player falling, not a trade into next year’s draft, but Brandon Beane actually making a 4th round pick. By now I’m sure you’ve seen the buzz about how Beane has only used 3 Bills 4th round picks in his tenure with the Bills. In this scenario, he’ll have not one but two 4th round picks to play with.

At this point in the draft, we’ll go a little lighter on player evaluations and more into draft strategy.

The delicate balance of a draft strategy is to not only attempt to find the best players you can, but to remember that you are constructing a roster, not just playing a draft game independently. The hope is that each player you draft will win a spot on the roster, so you don’t open them up to waivers and losing a low-cost roster option. When you have a star QB and the salary cap situation the Bills will be in for the foreseeable future, the ability to replenish the ranks through the draft and not rely on free agency is paramount. After the selections we’ve already made, we now have 5 roster locks at DT, but only 3 of those can play during week 1. The solution might already be on the roster in Dewayne Carter, Zion Logue or Branson Deen, but adding to the competition in the room makes a lot of sense. However, DL is deep this year, and it seems much more likely that a DLman will be there at the next 4th round pick than WR or S.

With the 109th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Jaylen Royals.

Jaylen Royals brings a size-speed combo that the Bills need. Running a 4.42 40 at 6’0 205 will raise eyebrows, but for the nerds out there, giving your college QB a 116.4 QB rating when targeted as their number 1 receiver will raise your draft stock in our eyes. When nfldraftbuzz.com finds similarities in your game to Ladd McConkey, sign me up.

Round 4 – Pick 132 Overall

Well you win some, you lose some. Every one of the DL targets we would seriously consider at this point were selected shortly after our last pick including Omarr Norman Lott, Deone Walker, and Ty Robinson. We’ll still include DL prospect Aeneas Peebles in our consideration, but him being an undersized 3 technique and likely lacking the versatility Beane desires, makes him an outside chance.

Brandon Beane has always kept a good balance between filling in needs now, but also adding developmental players that will fill future needs before they happen. The year before Tremaine Edmunds became a free agent, they drafted Terrel Bernard. The year before Motor Singletary became a free agent, they drafted James Cook. This year’s upcoming free agents include Matt Milano and James Cook, so LB and RB become distinct possibilities later on in the draft.

With the 132nd overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Chris Paul Jr..

Chris Paul Jr. fits in well as an athletic coverage linebacker who has great instincts and tackles well. While teams will worry about his size at 6’1 222, it won’t scare off the Bills, who want two coverage linebackers to roam in the second level of the defense. Terrel Bernard is 6’1 224, Matt Milano is 6’0 223. Chris Paul ran the 40 in 4.63, had a vertical jump of 36″, and has a wingspan of 75″. With the second of their two 4th-round picks, the Bills pick up a developmental linebacker who can also fit into the special-teams picture for this year.

Round 5 – Pick 169 Overall

This is really the spot in the current version of the Bills draft, where it begins to feel unrealistic and hard to project, for two reasons. First, we have only picked 5 of the 10 picks, meaning it becomes more and more likely that the Bills will be trading 1 or more of these picks away as the value becomes harder and harder to find. Beane loves his draft ammunition, and it seems very likely that, given the right trade partner, he’ll be looking to make moves and move up.

We get a bit lucky here, as three of the prospects we would start to consider in the 4th round make it to the first of three picks we have over a 5-pick span at the end of the 5th round. What complicates the pick value-wise is that every player has a fairly competent backup plan, so it becomes hard to decipher between the three. We’ll lean a bit on the perceived value that comes with a wide-open path to play time as the main backup to Ed Oliver.

With the 169th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Aeneas Peebles.

As mentioned before, Aeneas Peebles has a stellar record as a penetrating 3-tech in college. Where he lacks in size-speed he makes up for with fantastic technique and intelligence that allows him to read offensive line schemes and find the holes in the armor. During his first 4 seasons at Duke, he recorded 84 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, and 7.5 sacks (nfldraftbuzz.com). In his final year of eligibility, he put up 31 combined tackles with 6.5 tackles for loss with 3 sacks. This led to his selection as a First-Team All-ACC honors. For the Bills, he’ll provide depth and competition at what was a lackluster position group behind Ed Oliver last year.

Round 5 – Pick 170 Overall

We’ll skip the pleasantries on this one as it’s a back-to-back pick

With the 170th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Malachi Moore.

Malachi Moore is a classic free safety prospect who overcomes his relative lack of stature, with advanced awareness and speed. Playing for Nick Saban, Moore was positioned for success playing traditional safety, but also filling the role in Nick Saban’s “Star” position in Alabama’s pro-style extremely complicated defense, think when Jordan Poyer would drop down into the second level of the defense and fill the role of Sam linebacker. This role had been filled in the past by Javier Arenas, Dee Milliner, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Trevon Diggs and Patrick Surtain II, and Brian Branch. The Bills in this mock get a massive value as Moore’s draft stock would likely have been a lot higher, if he hadn’t missed out on the Reliaquest Bowl due to a sports hernia surgery he had been playing through.

Round 5 – Pick 173 Overall

Three short picks later, the Bills are selecting last of their three 5th round picks and are still targeting developmental depth positions and special teams contributors, with an eye for value.

With the 173th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Seth McLaughlin.

Seth McLaughlin is a Bills kind of Olineman. Playing center at Ohio State, he made his case for top five center in the class by being the ultimate communicator, diagnosing opponent defenses and captaining the Offensive Line. With Connor McGovern over the ball currently, the Bills don’t have a pressing need at the position, but believe strongly in keeping the talent level and developmental potential high. McLaughlin would elevate the camp battle that we predict will happen for depth interior lineman between Mike Edwards, Sedrick Van Pran-Grainger, Kendrick Green and Richard Gouraige.

Round 6 – Pick 177 Overall

Four picks later…development…value…etc. It’s the 9th pick in their draft, and the first pick of the 6th round.

With the 177th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Brashard Smith.

Brashard Smith…is…speed. Ok maybe he’s not Lightning McQueen, but he did post a 4.39 40 time at the combine. He was a four star recruit as a WR that received offers from Alabama, LSU, and Florida, initially committing to the University of Miami. Utilizing the transfer portal, he made the jump from receiver to running back, likely with an eye on the NFL. At 5’10, 194 lbs, he has an intriguing skill set that would challenge Ty Johnson‘s role initially as a 3rd down receiving back, also providing developmental depth and special teams contributions.

Round 6 – Pick 206 Overall

We did it! You did it. You made it through 10 picks of analysis in a very unlikely scenario that the Bills keep all of their draft picks this year. To reward your for your vigilance, the Bills reward you with another “in-the-weeds” value pick.

With the 206th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Jackson Hawes.

Jackson Hawes is a fascinating match for the Buffalo Bills. He initially began his collegiate career as a 6’4 241lb reserve TE at Yale in the worst possible year to start a career, with the pandemic complicating the 2019 season. In 2024, Hawes transferred to Georgia Tech, where he became a core piece of the run-first offense, not with receiving primarily, but with his blocking. He played in multiple positions including in-line, H-back, slot receiver, and fullback. He presents as a nasty blocker that reminds you of Spencer Brown, always seeking the finish his blocks by pancaking his assignment. No, he won’t challenge Dawson Knox or Dalton Kincaid for a starting spot, but as a break glass in case of emergency TE, and special teams contributor, in the bottom of the 6th round, you’d be hard pressed to find a better match for the Bills than Jackson Hawes. The second coming of Lee Smith, anyone?

Impact on the Roster

Here’s how the 90 man roster would begin to take shape after a draft where the Bills make all of their 10 draft selections.

Here’s how the 90 man roster would begin to take shape after a draft where the Bills make all of their 10 draft selections.

This would put us at exactly 53 players likely to make the roster as either a starter, a rookie, or a core special teamer, leaving us with no room to include anyone else making the team by winning camp battles, especially impacting WR, and depth OLine. It just underlines how extremely unlikely this scenario is. While theoretically possible, it would require us to relegate many previous year’s draft picks to the practice squad, opening them up to waivers.

Hopefully, you’re walking away with insights on intriguing prospects at every stage of the 2025 NFL draft.

In our next post, we’ll be considering the impact if the Bills execute a different draft strategy, trading up in the early rounds. Will the roster look better and more flexible? Or will it look lacking and in need of continuing improvement?