After narrowly escaping with a win against KC last week, the Bills only have two losses, tying all of the top teams in the league. Despite this, they are still only occupying the top wild card position at 5th in the AFC standings. While they control their own destiny when it comes to a playoff berth, they will need help from the 4 teams above them to gain coveted home field advantage or even the 1 seed gaining a bye. So let’s examine who we’re rooting for in Week 10.
The Bottom Line
Rise up Falcons!
Raise the Flag Bucs!
Here We Go, Steelers!
Here’s Why
The Bucs are a good team capable of beating the best, fighting for the top seed in the NFC. They have been struggling with injury all season and will be playing without stars Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, and Haason Reddick on Defense. This will leave Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers to face the imposing Patriots Defense. However, the Patriots are facing injuries of their own with LB Christian Elliss, WR Kayshon Boutte, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, RB Antonio Gibson, and DT Isaiah Iton all either on IR or out for this week’s matchup.
If the Pats were to lose, the Bills would technically have a higher win percentage of 77% and would take over the lead of the AFC East for the time being, opening them up to competing with the other teams in the AFC for the top spots in the conference.
How Likely Is It?
Currently, the Bucs are favored, but only by 2.5 pts. A field goal is not a wide margin and the Pats have a habit of winning close games. Let’s hope the Bucs get out to an early lead and the game never ends up being close.
The enigmatic Falcons have had a confusing season. So far, they have achieved upsets against good teams like the Bills, Vikings, and Commanders, pushed other good teams right to the brink like the Bucs (23-20) and Patriots (24-23). However, they have also lost terribly against mediocre teams, getting stomped by the Dolphins and shutout by the Panthers. Their success seems to be derived not from team strength, but by matchups and health.
Assuming the Bills win, a Colts loss would put them tied as far as number of wins. The Bills would need to gain the top spot in their division for tiebreaks to come into effect, but if they did, they would be as follows:
Head to Head : N/A
Common Opponents : They will both have 6 games against common opponents by the end of this season, but if the Bills win and the Colts lose today, the Bills would be 3-1 (75%) with wins against the Dolphins twice and the Chiefs, but a loss to the Falcons. The Colts would be 1-2 (33%) with a win against the Dolphins, but losses to the Steelers and the Falcons.
This conference record tiebreak would catapult the Bills up to as high as 2nd taking over the Colts spot, but again, this scenario would only kick in if the Bills were able to take the first place in the Division from the Pats.
How Likely is it?
Right now, the Falcons are a longshot by 6.5 points. Vegas believes that they will be unable to match Jonathan Taylor’s running game and Daniel Jones running a potent Colts offense. But the Falcons’ propensity to play up in big games could work in the Bills’ favor.
Rooting for a current division leader seems a little dubious, but with the Steelers winning only bringing them to 6 wins, the Bills would have a path to jumping over them. A win for the Chargers however would give them 7 wins and a better Conference win percentage than the Bills. This week, that wouldn’t have an impact as they cannot take over the Division lead, but if the Broncos were to stumble in future weeks and the Chargers were to take the lead in the AFC West, they would be a barrier to the Bills.
How Likely is it?
Vegas has the spread on the side of the Chargers by 2.5 points. Another field goal game pitting the Steelers’ imposing defense against the Chargers reinvigorated offense. Not necessary, but possible and every little bit helps.
When the Dust Settles
In this scenario, the Standings would be as follows.
| Seed | Team | Record | Conference Record |
| 1 | Denver | 8-2 | 5-2 |
| 2 | Buffalo | 7-2 | 5-1 |
| 3 | Indianapolis | 7-3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh | 6-3 | 5-1 |
| 5 | New England | 7-3 | 4-2 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Chargers | 6-4 | 5-2 |
| 7 | Jacksonville | 6-3 | 4-1 |