To any new Buffalo Bills fans, we welcome you to the satisfied disappointment of another good team that just could not seem to break through the barrier of the epitome of Sports Ball. So what do we do?

“Wow… you recovered quickly.”

My son said that to me as he peered over my shoulder and saw the Salary Cap Calculator with transactions already listed.

We begin the process of rebuilding the team in our minds and dreaming of the team that may be. This blog series will take us through the following progression:

  • Identify Who We Were
  • Discover our Needs
  • Spring Cleaning (Roster Moves)
  • Retooling (Free Agency Prediction)
  • Investing for the Future (Draft Prep)
  • Coaching Adjustments

The first step, identifying who we were.

This year’s team was an overachiever, fueled by the presence of the NFL MVP asserting his will. This prognosticator had us winning the division with somewhere around 10 or 11 wins. Before the Preseason, I had us losing to the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, Rams, and 49ers and factored in a random loss to the Dolphins or some other division opponent.

Instead, HC Sean McDermott continued instilling his team with his brand of a winning culture. The team environment has never been better, with no one player being the focal point and the trope “Everybody eats,” the team covered each other’s weaknesses and all three phases complemented the others well.

The Offense

Young Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady continued his exercise in eclecticism, designing game plans based on their opponents’ strengths and weaknesses.

Key Stats:

  • Average Percentage of Possession: 8th-50.96%
    • In the last 3 games: 2nd-57%
    • Home: 5th – 53%
  • Total Scoring: 2nd – 30.6 pts
    • Home Scoring : 2nd – 33 pts
    • Away Scoring: 5th – 28 pts
  • Passing Offense: 11th – 224 yards per game
    • Yards per Completion: 5th – 11.6
    • Average Passer Rating: 6th – 102
    • Sack Percentage: 1st – 3.06%

Josh Allen was great, but the real strength of this passing offense was the offensive line play. In a season where there were a lot of questions to be answered, this O-line answered them all. Would losing long-time starter at Center Mitch Morse hurt them, the $10 million man they grabbed in Free Agency away from the Chiefs? Would Connor McGovern be able to make the transition back to his preferred starting position seamlessly or would we see fumbled snaps and communication issues? Would 6th O-lineman David Edwards be able to transition from his Big TE role in 2023 to a full-time starter at LG? Would Dion and Spencer Brown continue their Top Tier Tackle play? Would 2nd-year Vet O’Cyrus Torrence continue to progress from a solid rookie campaign?

Under the leadership of star O-line Coach Aaron Kromer, this Offensive Line imposed their will, keeping Josh clean the most of any Quarterback in the league and elevating not only one but three running backs to great seasons and meaningful impacts in all facets of the game. Time and time again the Oline shined, flashing memorable plays where the Oline pushed, pulled, and dragged this team to success.

How would the Bills recover from losing not one, but two top WRs? Once again, a 4th receiver from the previous season filled the role well as a top starter, this time Khalil Shakir continuing his ascendency, ripping Josh Allen’s gaze away from Stefon Diggs and becoming the top target in this offense. Newly signed WR Mack Hollins was the heart and soul of the offense, making big receptions in the Gabe Davis Role, and pumping up the team and Bills Mafia with his gameflow antics.

Not everything was roses with the offense, however. One of the only big signings in the cap-strapped 2024 free agency Curtis Samuel didn’t flash until the end of the year, fighting lingering injuries all season. Remember when the pundits said he would be our number 1 target?

In the same vein, TE Dalton Kincaid was supposed to build on his impressive rookie season, but struggled on the field and in the recovery room, only playing in 13 games and being held to under 500 yards in the season.

Star WR Amari Cooper who was traded for mid-season, was a part of some great moments and shone in some had-to-have-it plays in close games, but in the big moments, didn’t make a big impact. He was a great locker team guy, with impeccable character, a great understanding of the game, and undeniable physical ability. (Being a chess player also helps him in the Bills Nerd analysis). But unfortunately, all of these traits didn’t translate to a productive season post-trade. His most productive game was against the Rams, in which he was targeted a massive 14 times, only catching the ball 6 times for 95 yards. He ended the regular season with only 297 yards receiving on 20 receptions across 8 games played. He also was inactive for 3 games mid-season. In the three playoff games, he disappeared with only a combined 6 catches on 8 targets for a disappointing 41 yards.

Rookie Keon Coleman had a promising start, but was unable to exceed expectations and command number one attention. There were 13 games where he caught three or fewer passes, with 9 of them where he caught 1 or less. This was on 46 targets in those 13 games. The opportunity was there, but despite his big wingspan and impressive stature, his inability to create separation through precise route running, combined with trying to play through a mid-season injury (inflicted by Jordan Poyer’s attempt to become the heel).

Overall, the passing game’s “success” reflects the ebbs and flows of the NFL in general. The rule changes a few years ago benefitted quarterback stats as defenders were larger and stronger, but as defenses have adjusted to the new landscape, infusing their defenses with versatile players with a balance of speed and agility, the most successful teams are not necessarily those who had the best passing games. The passing leader of the NFL Joe Burrow missed the playoffs entirely. The teams that made the deepest runs, making it to the conference championship games were not the best passing teams, with all of them having less than 4000 passing yards, and the eventual Superbowl champion QB only having 2903 passing yards.

If no one receiver had a great year catching, then how did Josh Allen finish 14th in passing yards with the team finishing 11th in Total Passing? It was death by 1000 paper cuts. A total of 9 players had more than 200 yards receiving (with the 10th Ray Davis coming close with 189). Joe Brady’s new mantra, “Everyone eats”, was not just simple banner fodder, but was emblematic of the team’s overall ethic.

The Bills were ahead of the curve under Sean McDermott’s leadership and Joe Brady’s excellent game planning. This offense won by complementary team play. When the team needed the passing game, it came through, but the team didn’t rely on passing to win games. It was a complete team that earned its way to the AFC Conference Championship.

Can the Passing Game improve?

Absolutely. Josh Allen isn’t going anywhere and the Bills are returning at least 12 starters and contributors, including the entire offensive line. Expect the Bills’ young skill players to take a big step forward next season as Joe Brady continues to craft game plans to take advantage of these players developing skills. With Dalton Kincaid (25), Keon Coleman (21), Khalil Shakir (24), Ray Davis (25), and James Cook (25) all still on their rookie contracts (though I expect that to change this offseason) this is still a young offensive football team. The only skill player over 30 on the offense is free agent Mack Hollins, and at 6’4″ his skill set is not likely to regress due to age. Joe Brady is also going to have another year under his belt as an Offensive Coordinator, and going into his second offseason as OC, expect this passing game to do big things in 2025, gaining in total production and an emerging star on the offensive side of the ball.

Next in our Imagining the 2025 Buffalo Bills series, we’ll turn our sights to the running offense and you won’t want to miss it.

Statistics and financial information sourced from the following:

  • teamrankings.com
  • overthecap.com
  • pro-football-reference.com