On Monday, during the legal tampering period, the Buffalo Bills agreed to terms with Josh Palmer, reportedly signing him to a three-year, 36-million dollar deal. With this move, the Bills begin the process of filling the void at WR left by the free agent statuses of Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper.

Going into the off-season, the Bills only had 6 WRs total on the roster, with only 3 of them having played a meaningful role on the 2024 offense. Khalil Shakir is the only proven target for Josh Allen and was recently compensated for his emergence as the Bills’ #1 option. Rookie Keon Coleman (though now I guess we have to start calling him a second-year player) had a solid first 6 weeks, but couldn’t bounce back from a nagging wrist injury caused by Jordan Poyer’s best John Cena Impression (where he turned heel). Curtis Samuel, largely still hampered by a lingering turf toe injury that emerged during training camp, left a lot to be desired.

Needless to say, competition was a must at WR going into the 2025 offseason.

Enter Josh Palmer, stage right.

Background

Josh Palmer is a Canadian who grew up in Brampton, Ontario, a mere hour and a half from Buffalo. He was a three-sport athlete (basketball and track) as a 9th and 10th grader who helped lead his team to two JV football Titles. Given his natural talent, Palmer and his parents decided to attend summer football camps in the States and, following excellent reviews, decided it was time to go all in.

In his 11th and 12th grade years, he moved to Fort Lauderdale, Florida to play at the high school alma mater of pro players Geno Atkins, Jordan Battle, Giovanni Bernard, and both the Bosa brothers. The strategy worked as Palmer entered the recruiting cycle as a three-star recruit and finally committed to the Tennessee Volunteers to play his college ball (though it would have been cool if he had stayed playing at Syracuse like he originally intended, just for the Bills Lore).

His College Career

The 6’1 210 lb receiver had a fairly underwhelming career with the Tenessee Volunteers. He never had a season in which he had more than 34 catches or more than 484 yards. In his sophomore year, he had 21 yards per reception, but came back to earth in his junior and senior years at 13 and 14 yards, respectively.

So, if he had a fairly mediocre career in college, what made him a third-round pick?

Well, it sure wasn’t his Combine performance. He ran a 4.52 40-yard dash, which is not terrible for 6’1 and 210 lbs, but not great by any means. His 4.36 short shuttle didn’t indicate any uniquely natural athleticism that indicates quickness and change of direction ability, often translating to route running ability. It seems like he checked the boxes, but he didn’t impress coming out of the combine.

Scouting profiles seemed to indicate at the time that what made Josh Palmer stand out was two-fold: his performance against future NFL CBs and his Senior Bowl practices. In an early season game against Georgia, he put up 4 catches for 71 yards and 2 touchdowns against future NFL CB Eric Stokes. He also received rave reviews at the Senior Bowl for his performance during practice drills. While he was largely projected to be a day three pick, he surprised as a third-round pick (77th overall) in the 2021 draft.

His History as a Charger

What he lacked in his college career, he improved on in the NFL. Playing with a talented QB in Justin Herbert, he never achieved less than 33 receptions. His best year was his age 23 year, his second year in the league, where he drew 107 target,s turning them into 72 receptions for 769 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The crazy thing is, for the last two years, he only started 6 and 7 games, only drawing targets in the 60s and yards consistently in the 580s. The one thing he did was improve his yards per reception.

The Chargers in his last two years utilized Palmer as a vertical route runner, increasing his yards per reception to 15 yards per reception with 9 yards per target, good for 7th in the NFL in 2024. His catch rate was in the 60s in all four of his seasons with the Chargers.

The emergence of Ladd McConkey in his rookie year as the slot receiver and the #1 target, along with the presence of the overpowering Quentin Johnson, makes you wonder, what would have been the opportunity for a guy like Josh Palmer to assert himself and increase his production? It seems likely that he felt like his role was too defined and his ceiling too capped in Los Angeles.

Buffalo presents Palmer with the opportunity to expand his role and perhaps benefit from the creativity of Joe Brady in crafting a role for him that allows him to use his skill set in new ways than he was being utilized with the Chargers.

What Can We Expect?

Josh Palmer fits what Buffalo seems to be lacking in the NFL. The eyeball test from watching tape shows that he does well when running routes that we don’t seem to see the current Bills receivers. Watch his tape and you will see go-routes, deep hooks, crossing routes. While he is not your typical burner, he is a vertical route runner. He was ranked 10th in win rate per route run in the NFL.

Before the legal tampering period began, I was amazed to hear both Joe Marino of the Locked on Bills Podcast and Sal Capaccio of WGR 550 and the It’s Always Gameday in Buffalo Podcast, where both of them listed Josh Palmer as the first player they would be interested in the Bills signing. And the reasons they give seem to match what the stats and the tape show.

Josh Palmer gets separation and gets open in coverage, especially man coverage. He ranked 8th out of 131 eligible receivers in separation against man coverage.

The Bills are investing in a player with a complementary skill set to the players they already have on the roster. We haven’t had this good of a separator and boundary WR since Stef and Gabe.

Now, measure your expectations. He is not a star. He is not a #1. He is not DK Metcalf or Davante Adams, and the Bills are not paying him like he is. But he is a good fit for the offense and will open up the field in a way that the other players on the offense have not been able to. He fits right into the Bills’ offensive motto, Everyone Eats, and will present opposing defenses with yet another layer to have to figure out how to defend.

Projection: 60 catches for 600 yards and 4 touchdowns.